I am an Assistant Professor of Finance at HKU Business School.
I study international finance and macro, with a focus on exchange rate dynamics, emerging markets business cycles, and international capital allocation.
You can find my CV here (last updated: November 2024)
My Google Scholar page is here.
Upcoming presentations/discussions:
Bank of Korea, SFS Cavalcade Asia-Pacific.
Contact:
E-mail: haonanz [at] hku.hk
Twitter: @Haonan_Zhou
Working Papers
Anatomy of the Treasury Market: Who Moves Yields? (with Manav Chaudhary and Zhiyu Fu)
[Latest version: November 2024] (new!)
Non-bank Lending during Crises (with Iñaki Aldasoro and Sebastian Doerr)
[Latest version: November 2024] (updated!)
[SUERF Policy Brief] [Central Banking]
Selected Presentations: Bank of England, CEBRA, FDIC
Signaling with Debt Currency Choice (with Egemen Eren and Semyon Malamud)
[Latest version: October 2024] (updated!)
Best Paper Award, CICF 2023
Selected Presentations: Adam Smith Workshop, EFA, SFS Cavalcade, Vienna Symposium on Foreign Exchange Markets, AsianFA, CICF
Do Investor Differences Impact Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets? (with Ester Faia and Karen K. Lewis)
[Latest version: August 2024] (new!)
Presentations: NBER (ISoM), EFA
The Fickle and the Stable: Global Financial Cycle Transmission via Heterogeneous Investors
[Latest version: January 2024]
Presentations: MFA, Adam Smith Workshop, ESSIM, DebtCon, EEA-ESEM
Open Economy, Redistribution, and the Aggregate Impact of External Shocks
[Latest version: February 2022]
Marimar & Cristina Torres Prize (best 3rd-year paper), Princeton University
Avinash K. Dixit Prize in International Economics, Princeton University
Selected Presentations: CICM, NBER, Bank of Canada, Banco Central del Uruguay, T2M
Published and Forthcoming
Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants, and Disconnect (with Eugenio Cerutti)
IMF Economic Review (2024) 72:196–252.
[Local Copy]
The Global Dollar Cycle (with Maurice Obstfeld)
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2022.
[Replication Package] [Non-Technical Summary] [VoxEU Column] [Podcast]
[Bloomberg] [Central Banking] [Econofact] [The Economist] [FT] [MarketWatch] [Reuters] [New York Times]
[IMF 2023 External Sector Report]
Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants (with Eugenio Cerutti and Maurice Obstfeld)
Journal of International Economics, Volume 130, May 2021.
[VoxEU Column] [Replication Package]
Work in Progress
The Crowding Out Effect of Fiscal Expansion on Corporate Borrowing (with Zefeng Chen, Masazumi Hattori and Mai Li)
Abstract: This paper uncovers a large and unintended spillover effect of expansionary fiscal policy on corporate borrowing. Using a proprietary firm-bank-loan level data from Japan, we provide causal evidence that the significant expansion in the Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) issuance starting from year 1998 crowded out the corporate bonds that could have been issued by industrial companies. The affected companies switched to banks for long-term funds to maintain a stable debt maturity structure. Upon the fiscal shock, 1) firms that have relied heavily on bond market began to borrow more long-term loans and extend their bank loan maturity stronger than the comparable counterparts did; 2) no significant effect on short-term loans is found; 3) such fiscal crowding-out effect on bank loans is not driven by bank’s credit supply but rather firm’s credit demand. We build a simple preferred-habitat model consistent with these findings.
Selected Presentations: AsianFA, AMES.
Managing Emerging Market Currency Risk (with Nanyu Chen)
Policy Writings
Non-bank Lenders in the Syndicated Loan Market (with Iñaki Aldasoro and Sebastian Doerr)
BIS Quarterly Review, March 2022
The Chinese Banking System: Much More than a Domestic Giant (with Eugenio Cerutti)
VoxEU Column, February 2018
Selected Discussions
“Which Exchange Rate Matters to Global Investors?” (Jansen, Shin, von Peter 2024). EFA
“Investor Heterogeneity and Large-Scale Asset Purchases” (Breckenfelder, De Falco 2024). BSE Summer Forum
“Liquidity Risk and Currency Premia” (Soderlind, Somogyi 2023). NFA
“Understanding the Strength of the Dollar.” (Jiang, Richmond, Zhang 2023). Vienna Symposium on Foreign Exchange Markets
“Internationalizing Like China.” (Clayton, Dos Santos, Maggiori, Schreger 2022). SFS Cavalcade
“The Long-run Risk Premium in the ICAPM: International Evidence.” (Sakemoto 2022). AsianFA
Teaching
Financial Markets and Institutions, HKU (undergraduate)