I am an Assistant Professor of Finance at HKU Business School.
I study international finance and macroeconomics, with a focus on exchange rate dynamics, emerging markets business cycles, and global capital allocation.
CV (last updated: April 2025) | Google Scholar | HKUBS Profile
Upcoming presentations/discussions:
WFA, SED, CICF (Jun 2025); SFX, EFA (Aug 2025);
USC (Oct 2025); Bundesbank (Nov 2025)
Contact: E-mail: haonanz [at] hku.hk | Twitter: @Haonan_Zhou
Working Papers
Managing Emerging Market Currency Risk (with Nanyu Chen)
[Latest version: May 2025] (updated!)
[SSRN]
Presentations: SED, CICF, SFX
Non-bank Lending during Crises (with Iñaki Aldasoro and Sebastian Doerr)
[Latest version: May 2025] (updated!)
Revised & Resubmitted, Review of Finance
[SUERF Policy Brief] [Central Banking]
Selected Presentations: Bank of England, CEBRA, FDIC
Anatomy of the Treasury Market: Who Moves Yields? (with Manav Chaudhary and Zhiyu Juliette Fu)
[Latest version: May 2025] (updated!)
[SSRN] [Slides] [Julia Package (new)]
Selected Presentations: The Chicago Booth Treasury Markets Conference 2025, Second UIC Finance Conference, the 2025 OFR Rising Scholar Conference, NBER SI, EFA
The Fickle and the Stable: Global Financial Cycle Transmission via Heterogeneous Investors
[Latest version: February 2025] (updated!)
[SSRN] [Job Market Paper version] (with additional results)
Presentations: MFA, Adam Smith Workshop, ESSIM, DebtCon, EEA-ESEM
Signaling with Debt Currency Choice (with Egemen Eren and Semyon Malamud)
[Latest version: October 2024]
Revise & Resubmit
Best Paper Award, CICF 2023
Selected Presentations: Adam Smith Workshop, EFA, SFS Cavalcade, Vienna Symposium on Foreign Exchange Markets, AsianFA, CICF
Open Economy, Redistribution, and the Aggregate Impact of External Shocks
[Latest version: February 2022]
Marimar & Cristina Torres Prize (best 3rd-year paper), Princeton University
Avinash K. Dixit Prize in International Economics, Princeton University
Selected Presentations: CICM, NBER, Bank of Canada, Banco Central del Uruguay, T2M
Published and Forthcoming
Do Investor Differences Impact Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets? (with Ester Faia and Karen K. Lewis)
Forthcoming, Journal of International Economics
[Online Appendix] [VoxEU Column] [Replication Package]
Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants, and Disconnect (with Eugenio Cerutti)
IMF Economic Review (2024) 72:196–252.
[Local Copy]
The Global Dollar Cycle (with Maurice Obstfeld)
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2022.
[Replication Package] [Non-Technical Summary] [VoxEU Column] [Podcast]
[Bloomberg] [Central Banking] [Econofact] [The Economist] [FT] [MarketWatch] [Reuters] [New York Times]
[IMF 2023 External Sector Report]
Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants (with Eugenio Cerutti and Maurice Obstfeld)
Journal of International Economics, Volume 130, May 2021.
[VoxEU Column] [Replication Package]
Work in Progress
The Crowding Out Effect of Fiscal Expansion on Corporate Borrowing (with Zefeng Chen, Masazumi Hattori and Mai Li)
Abstract: This paper uncovers a large and unintended spillover effect of expansionary fiscal policy on corporate borrowing. Using a proprietary firm-bank-loan level data from Japan, we provide causal evidence that the significant expansion in the Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) issuance starting from year 1998 crowded out the corporate bonds that could have been issued by industrial companies. The affected companies switched to banks for long-term funds to maintain a stable debt maturity structure. Upon the fiscal shock, 1) firms that have relied heavily on bond market began to borrow more long-term loans and extend their bank loan maturity stronger than the comparable counterparts did; 2) no significant effect on short-term loans is found; 3) such fiscal crowding-out effect on bank loans is not driven by bank’s credit supply but rather firm’s credit demand. We build a simple preferred-habitat model consistent with these findings.
Selected Presentations: AsianFA, AMES.
Selected Policy Writings
Non-bank Lenders in the Syndicated Loan Market (with Iñaki Aldasoro and Sebastian Doerr)
BIS Quarterly Review, March 2022
The Chinese Banking System: Much More than a Domestic Giant (with Eugenio Cerutti)
VoxEU Column, February 2018
Selected Discussions
“Money Market Funds and the Pricing of Near-Money Assets” (Doerr, Eren, Malamud 2024). SFS Cavalcade AP
“Which Exchange Rate Matters to Global Investors?” (Jansen, Shin, von Peter 2024). EFA
“Investor Heterogeneity and Large-Scale Asset Purchases” (Breckenfelder, De Falco 2024). BSE Summer Forum
“Understanding the Strength of the Dollar.” (Jiang, Richmond, Zhang 2023). Vienna Symposium on Foreign Exchange Markets
“Internationalizing Like China.” (Clayton, Dos Santos, Maggiori, Schreger 2022). SFS Cavalcade NA
Teaching
Financial Markets and Institutions, HKU (undergraduate) [Syllabus]